Republicans are entering the 2025 gubernatorial and legislative races in Virginia and New Jersey with optimism, largely fueled by their improved performance in the 2024 presidential election.
In New Jersey, former President Trump narrowed his loss to President Biden by 10 points compared to 2020, and in Virginia, he improved by over 4 points.
These shifts in traditionally Democratic states are contributing to a growing sense that the GOP could make gains in the upcoming off-year elections.
Both states will hold open gubernatorial races, along with elections for Virginia’s House of Delegates and New Jersey’s General Assembly.
These races will serve as an early gauge of voter sentiment heading into the 2026 midterms, with Republicans hoping to capitalize on frustrations over issues like the economy and inflation, which Trump used to win key counties in New Jersey.
In Virginia, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Rep. Abigail Spanberger are seen as leading candidates for the GOP and Democratic primaries, respectively. Republicans credit their chances to a unified front under Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who has supported Earle-Sears.
The state’s political landscape has shifted since Trump’s defeat in 2020, with significant Democratic victories in 2017 and 2018, but GOP strategists are confident that Virginia is returning to a more competitive state for the party.
The contest in New Jersey is expected to be more chaotic, with crowded primaries on both sides. Democrats have seen Trump flip counties that hadn’t voted Republican since the 1980s and 1990s, signaling growing dissatisfaction with the status quo.
The New Jersey GOP is optimistic that this shift, along with a desire for change, will lead to strong performance in 2025.
Despite these hopes, political analysts caution that while recent trends in both states show potential for the GOP, it’s too early to determine whether these shifts are part of a lasting trend or merely a temporary reversion to 2016 voting patterns.
Both parties will likely need to adjust their strategies to engage voters on key issues, with the economy and political unity playing central roles in the upcoming elections.
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